North Antrim
Westminster constituency · Northern Ireland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives another party a 83% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.0 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 83%.
Compared with the average
| Other | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Antrim | 29.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 5.0%+24.3 | 20.4%−20.2 | 24.3%−24.1 | 10.3%−10.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Jim Allister · TUV
Previous election (2024)
Another party won by 2.5 points.
Our current projection: another party ahead by 3.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Allister Elected | TUV | 11,642 | 28.3 |
| Ian Paisley | DUP | 11,192 | 27.2 |
| Philip McGuigan | Sinn Féin | 7,714 | 18.7 |
| Sian Mulholland | Alliance | 4,488 | 10.9 |
| Jackson Minford | UUP | 3,901 | 9.5 |
| Helen Maher | SDLP | 1,661 | 4.0 |
| Ráichéal Mhic Niocaill | Aontú | 451 | 1.1 |
| Tristan Morrow | Other | 136 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- East Antrim DUP, toss-up
- South Antrim UUP, safe seat
- East Londonderry DUP, toss-up
- Belfast North Sinn Féin, safe seat
- Mid Ulster Sinn Féin, safe seat
- Belfast West Sinn Féin, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated