Mid Ulster
Westminster constituency · Northern Ireland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Sinn Féin a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 32.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Other | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mid Ulster | 9.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 5.0%+4.1 | 20.4%−20.2 | 24.3%−24.1 | 10.3%−10.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Mr Cathal Mallaghan · Sinn Féin
Previous election (2024)
Sinn Féin won by 32.8 points.
Our current projection: Sinn Féin ahead by 32.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cathal Mallaghan Elected | Sinn Féin | 24,085 | 53.0 |
| Keith Buchanan | DUP | 9,162 | 20.2 |
| Denise Johnston | SDLP | 3,722 | 8.2 |
| Glenn Moore | TUV | 2,978 | 6.6 |
| Jay Basra | UUP | 2,269 | 5.0 |
| Padraic Farrell | Alliance | 2,001 | 4.4 |
| Alixandra Halliday | Aontú | 1,047 | 2.3 |
| John Kelly | Other | 181 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- East Londonderry DUP, toss-up
- Upper Bann DUP, safe seat
- Newry and Armagh Sinn Féin, safe seat
- North Antrim Other, toss-up
- West Tyrone Sinn Féin, safe seat
- Foyle SDLP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated