Foyle
Westminster constituency · Northern Ireland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the SDLP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 6%.
Compared with the average
| Other | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foyle | 11.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 5.0%+6.9 | 20.4%−20.2 | 24.3%−24.1 | 10.3%−10.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Colum Eastwood · SDLP
Previous election (2024)
The SDLP won by 10.9 points.
Our current projection: the SDLP ahead by 10.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colum Eastwood Elected | SDLP | 15,647 | 40.8 |
| Sandra Duffy | Sinn Féin | 11,481 | 29.9 |
| Gary Middleton | DUP | 3,915 | 10.2 |
| Shaun Harkin | Other | 2,444 | 6.4 |
| Anne McCloskey | Other | 1,519 | 4.0 |
| Janice Montgomery | UUP | 1,422 | 3.7 |
| Rachael Ferguson | Alliance | 1,268 | 3.3 |
| John Boyle | Aontú | 662 | 1.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- West Tyrone Sinn Féin, safe seat
- East Londonderry DUP, toss-up
- Mid Ulster Sinn Féin, safe seat
- Fermanagh and South Tyrone Sinn Féin, safe seat
- North Antrim Other, toss-up
- Upper Bann DUP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated