Fermanagh and South Tyrone
Westminster constituency · Northern Ireland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Sinn Féin a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 13%.
Compared with the average
| Other | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fermanagh and South Tyrone | 2.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 5.0%−2.7 | 20.4%−20.2 | 24.3%−24.1 | 10.3%−10.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Pat Cullen · Sinn Féin
Previous election (2024)
Sinn Féin won by 9.0 points.
Our current projection: Sinn Féin ahead by 8.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pat Cullen Elected | Sinn Féin | 24,844 | 48.6 |
| Diana Armstrong | UUP | 20,273 | 39.7 |
| Eddie Roofe | Alliance | 2,420 | 4.7 |
| Paul Blake | SDLP | 2,386 | 4.7 |
| Gerry Cullen | Other | 624 | 1.2 |
| Carl Duffy | Aontú | 529 | 1.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- West Tyrone Sinn Féin, safe seat
- Mid Ulster Sinn Féin, safe seat
- Foyle SDLP, safe seat
- Newry and Armagh Sinn Féin, safe seat
- East Londonderry DUP, toss-up
- Upper Bann DUP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated