Newry and Armagh
Westminster constituency · Northern Ireland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Sinn Féin a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 32.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Other | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newry and Armagh | 10.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 5.0%+5.7 | 20.4%−20.1 | 24.3%−24.1 | 10.3%−10.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Dáire Hughes · Sinn Féin
Previous election (2024)
Sinn Féin won by 33.7 points.
Our current projection: Sinn Féin ahead by 32.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dáire Hughes Elected | Sinn Féin | 22,299 | 48.5 |
| Pete Byrne | SDLP | 6,806 | 14.8 |
| Gareth Wilson | DUP | 5,900 | 12.8 |
| Keith Ratcliffe | TUV | 4,099 | 8.9 |
| Sam Nicholson | UUP | 3,175 | 6.9 |
| Helena Young | Alliance | 2,692 | 5.9 |
| Liam Reichenberg | Aontú | 888 | 1.9 |
| Samantha Rayner | Conservative | 83 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Upper Bann DUP, safe seat
- Mid Ulster Sinn Féin, safe seat
- Lagan Valley Alliance, toss-up
- South Down Sinn Féin, safe seat
- South Antrim UUP, safe seat
- Belfast West Sinn Féin, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated