Upper Bann
Westminster constituency · Northern Ireland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the DUP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 15.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Other | Green | Conservative | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upper Bann | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 5.0%−4.3 | 10.4%−10.2 | 20.4%−20.2 | 24.3%−24.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Carla Lockhart · DUP
Previous election (2024)
The DUP won by 15.6 points.
Our current projection: the DUP ahead by 15.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Lockhart Elected | DUP | 21,642 | 45.7 |
| Catherine Nelson | Sinn Féin | 14,236 | 30.1 |
| Eóin Tennyson | Alliance | 6,322 | 13.4 |
| Kate Evans | UUP | 3,662 | 7.7 |
| Malachy Quinn | SDLP | 1,496 | 3.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Newry and Armagh Sinn Féin, safe seat
- Lagan Valley Alliance, toss-up
- South Antrim UUP, safe seat
- Mid Ulster Sinn Féin, safe seat
- Belfast West Sinn Féin, safe seat
- South Down Sinn Féin, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated