West Tyrone
Westminster constituency · Northern Ireland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Sinn Féin a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 35.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Other | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Tyrone | 7.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 5.0%+2.5 | 20.4%−20.0 | 24.3%−24.1 | 10.3%−10.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Órfhlaith Begley · Sinn Féin
Previous election (2024)
Sinn Féin won by 36.4 points.
Our current projection: Sinn Féin ahead by 35.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Órfhlaith Begley Elected | Sinn Féin | 22,711 | 52.0 |
| Tom Buchanan | DUP | 6,794 | 15.6 |
| Daniel McCrossan | SDLP | 5,821 | 13.3 |
| Matthew Bell | UUP | 2,683 | 6.1 |
| Stevan Patterson | TUV | 2,530 | 5.8 |
| Stephen Donnelly | Alliance | 2,287 | 5.2 |
| Leza Houston | Aontú | 778 | 1.8 |
| Stephen Lynch | Conservative | 91 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Fermanagh and South Tyrone Sinn Féin, safe seat
- Foyle SDLP, safe seat
- Mid Ulster Sinn Féin, safe seat
- East Londonderry DUP, toss-up
- Newry and Armagh Sinn Féin, safe seat
- Upper Bann DUP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated