East Londonderry
Westminster constituency · Northern Ireland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the DUP a 55% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.0 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 82%.
Compared with the average
| Other | Green | Conservative | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Londonderry | 13.0% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 5.0%+8.0 | 10.4%−9.3 | 20.4%−19.8 | 24.3%−24.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Mr Gregory Campbell · DUP
Previous election (2024)
The DUP won by 0.4 points.
Our current projection: the DUP ahead by 3.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gregory Campbell Elected | DUP | 11,506 | 27.9 |
| Kathleen McGurk | Sinn Féin | 11,327 | 27.4 |
| Cara Hunter | SDLP | 5,260 | 12.7 |
| Allister Kyle | TUV | 4,363 | 10.6 |
| Richard Stewart | Alliance | 3,734 | 9.1 |
| Glen Miller | UUP | 3,412 | 8.3 |
| Gemma Brolly | Aontú | 1,043 | 2.5 |
| Jen McCahon | Green | 445 | 1.1 |
| Claire Scull | Conservative | 187 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Mid Ulster Sinn Féin, safe seat
- Foyle SDLP, safe seat
- North Antrim Other, toss-up
- West Tyrone Sinn Féin, safe seat
- Upper Bann DUP, safe seat
- South Antrim UUP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated