Strangford
Westminster constituency · Northern Ireland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the DUP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 13.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Other | Green | Conservative | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strangford | 9.0% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 5.0%+4.0 | 10.4%−8.6 | 20.4%−19.9 | 24.3%−24.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Current member
Jim Shannon · DUP
Previous election (2024)
The DUP won by 13.2 points.
Our current projection: the DUP ahead by 13.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Shannon Elected | DUP | 15,559 | 40.0 |
| Michelle Guy | Alliance | 10,428 | 26.8 |
| Richard Smart | UUP | 3,941 | 10.1 |
| Ron McDowell | TUV | 3,143 | 8.1 |
| Noel Sands | Sinn Féin | 2,793 | 7.2 |
| Will Polland | SDLP | 1,783 | 4.6 |
| Alexandra Braidner | Green | 703 | 1.8 |
| Garreth Falls | Other | 256 | 0.7 |
| Gareth Burns | Other | 157 | 0.4 |
| Barry Hetherington | Conservative | 146 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Belfast East DUP, competitive
- Belfast South and Mid Down SDLP, safe seat
- North Down Other, safe seat
- South Down Sinn Féin, safe seat
- Belfast North Sinn Féin, safe seat
- Belfast West Sinn Féin, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated