Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock
Westminster constituency · Scotland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the SNP a 97% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 81%.
Compared with the average
| SNP | Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock | 26.9% | 23.4% | 19.0% | 15.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.9%+23.9 | 23.1%+0.4 | 20.4%−1.4 | 24.3%−9.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Employment rate | 68.6% |
|---|
Current member
Elaine Stewart · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 10.2 points.
Our current projection: the SNP ahead by 3.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elaine Stewart Elected | Labour | 14,930 | 36.5 |
| Allan Dorans | SNP | 10,776 | 26.3 |
| Martin Dowey | Conservative | 9,247 | 22.6 |
| Andrew Russell | Reform UK | 3,544 | 8.7 |
| Paul Kennedy | Lib Dems | 1,081 | 2.6 |
| Korin Vallance | Green | 886 | 2.2 |
| Corri Wilson | Other | 472 | 1.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Central Ayrshire SNP, toss-up
- North Ayrshire and Arran SNP, safe seat
- Dumfries and Galloway SNP, toss-up
- Kilmarnock and Loudoun SNP, safe seat
- Paisley and Renfrewshire South SNP, safe seat
- Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West SNP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated