Dumfries and Galloway
Westminster constituency · Scotland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the SNP a 81% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.8 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 98%.
Compared with the average
| SNP | Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dumfries and Galloway | 27.0% | 25.5% | 21.1% | 12.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.9%+24.0 | 20.4%+5.1 | 23.1%−2.0 | 24.3%−12.3 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Employment rate | 78.0% |
|---|
Current member
John Cooper · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 2.0 points.
Our current projection: the SNP ahead by 1.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Cooper Elected | Conservative | 13,527 | 29.5 |
| Tracey Little | SNP | 12,597 | 27.5 |
| James Wallace | Labour | 11,767 | 25.7 |
| Charles Keal | Reform UK | 4,313 | 9.4 |
| Iain McDonald | Lib Dems | 2,092 | 4.6 |
| Laura Moodie | Green | 1,249 | 2.7 |
| David Griffiths | Other | 230 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock SNP, toss-up
- North Down Other, safe seat
- North Ayrshire and Arran SNP, safe seat
- Strangford DUP, safe seat
- Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber SNP, safe seat
- Central Ayrshire SNP, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated