Kilmarnock and Loudoun
Westminster constituency · Scotland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the SNP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 13.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| SNP | Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kilmarnock and Loudoun | 35.4% | 22.0% | 19.3% | 8.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.9%+32.5 | 23.1%−1.0 | 24.3%−5.0 | 20.4%−12.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Employment rate | 72.3% |
|---|
Current member
Lillian Jones · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 12.1 points.
Our current projection: the SNP ahead by 13.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lillian Jones Elected | Labour | 19,055 | 44.9 |
| Alan Brown | SNP | 13,936 | 32.8 |
| Jordan Cowie | Conservative | 3,527 | 8.3 |
| William Thomson | Reform UK | 3,472 | 8.2 |
| Bex Glen | Green | 1,237 | 2.9 |
| Edward Thornley | Lib Dems | 850 | 2.0 |
| Stephen McNamara | Other | 401 | 0.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- East Renfrewshire SNP, safe seat
- East Kilbride and Strathaven SNP, competitive
- Glasgow South SNP, safe seat
- Glasgow South West SNP, safe seat
- Glasgow East SNP, safe seat
- Rutherglen SNP, competitive
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated