Missouri’s 2nd District
U.S. House · MO-2
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 55% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.9 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 51%.
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MO-2 | 50.3% | 49.3% | 0.4% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.2%+6.0 | 54.5%−5.2 | 1.2%−0.9 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
2 polls, 4 scenarios
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 2.3% (± 0.2) |
|---|
Current member
Wagner, Ann L. · Republican
Who's running
The candidates
Candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Republican Incumbent Wagner, Ann L.
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
-
Democrat Challenger Bilash, Timothy D
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
- Democrat Challenger
Summers, Charles David Mr.
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
- Democrat Challenger
Vivio, Nicholas
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
- Democrat Challenger
Vondras, Joan
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
- Democrat Challenger
Wellman, Frederick Paul
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
- Republican Challenger
Sheridan, Ryan
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 12.0 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 5.9 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated