Missouri’s 8th District
U.S. House · MO-8
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 43.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MO-8 | 71.8% | 28.2% | 0.0% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.2%+27.5 | 54.5%−26.3 | 1.2%−1.2 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 1.9% (± 0.1) |
|---|
Current member
Smith, Jason T · Republican
Who's running
The candidates
Candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Republican Incumbent Smith, Jason T
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
-
Democrat Challenger Barnitz, Frank A
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
- Democrat Challenger
Reichard, Christopher
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
- Republican Challenger
Heslop, Gordon
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 54.4 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 43.6 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated