Missouri’s 6th District
U.S. House · MO-6
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 33.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MO-6 | 66.5% | 33.4% | 0.1% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.2%+22.3 | 54.5%−21.1 | 1.2%−1.1 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 3.2% (± 0.1) |
|---|
Current member
Graves, Samuel B. Jr. · Republican
Who's running
The candidates
Candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Republican Incumbent Graves, Samuel B. Jr.
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
- Republican Challenger
Schultz, Nathanael
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
-
Democrat Open seat Levine, Matthew
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
- Democrat Open seat
Pondelick, Scot
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
- Democrat Open seat
Smead, Josh
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
- Republican Open seat
Ingram, James Ronald
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
- Republican Open seat
Oshel, Cody
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
- Republican Open seat
Stigall, Chris
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
- Republican Open seat
Willett, Nathan
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 43.8 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 33.1 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated