Nevada’s 2nd District

U.S. House · NV-2

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 66% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.0 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 44%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 51.7%

Dave Flippo
Democrat 48.3%

Teresa Benitez-Thompson

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat
NV-2	51.7%	48.3%
National averageUnited States	44.2%+7.4	54.5%−6.2

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

3 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Gbao Nevada Alliance	Aug 31, 2026 – Sep 3, 2026	500	likely voters	Teresa Benitez-Thompson (D) 38 David Flippo (R) 37 Lynn Chapman (IAP) 14	See the poll
Strategies 360	22–Aug 26, 2026	400	likely voters	David Flippo (R) 45 Teresa Benitez-Thompson (D) 42 Lynn Chapman (IAP) 7	See the poll
Wedgewood Polls	9–Jul 12, 2026	350	likely voters	Teresa Benitez-Thompson (D) 48 David Flippo (R) 46	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	16.8% (± 0.3)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Amodei, Mark Eugene · Republican

Primary results

Held June 9, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Teresa Benitez-Thompson	45.6%	23,706 votes
Republican primary	Dave Flippo	46.9%	38,174 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Challenger

Dave Flippo
source
Democrat Open seat

Teresa Benitez-Thompson
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 10.1 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 7.0 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

NV-4 Democrat, safe seat
NV-1 Democrat, safe seat
NV-3 Democrat, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 15, 2026