Nevada’s 3rd District

U.S. House · NV-3

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 98% chance of winning, with an average lead of 14.8 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 8%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Democrat	Republican
NV-3	57.3%	42.7%
National averageUnited States	54.5%+2.8	44.2%−1.5

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	17.2% (± 0.6)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Susie Lee · Democrat

Held June 9, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Susie Lee	69.2%	31,712 votes
Republican primary	Martin O'Donnell	42.3%	14,892 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

The Democrats won by 2.7 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 14.8 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.