Nevada’s 1st District

U.S. House · NV-1

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 19.3 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 3%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Democrat	Republican	Other
NV-1	59.1%	39.8%	1.1%
National averageUnited States	54.5%+4.6	44.2%−4.4	1.2%−0.1

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	25.8% (± 0.6)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Dina Titus · Democrat

Held June 9, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Dina Titus	75.9%	33,605 votes
Republican primary	Carrie Buck	77.7%	24,680 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Incumbent

Dina Titus
source
Other Challenger

Khan, Afzal

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Republican Challenger

Carrie Buck
source

The Democrats won by 7.5 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 19.3 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.