Nevada’s 4th District

U.S. House · NV-4

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 19.9 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 2%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Democrat	Republican	Other
NV-4	59.7%	39.9%	0.4%
National averageUnited States	54.5%+5.2	44.2%−4.4	1.2%−0.9

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	26.0% (± 0.5)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Steven Horsford · Democrat

Held June 9, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Steven Horsford	0.0%
Republican primary	Cody Whipple	61.8%	22,103 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

The Democrats won by 8.1 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 19.9 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.