Vote-Scope · CUSMA · Trade-war desk
The trade war desk.
Talks collapsed. The tariffs landed. This page keeps one instrument, one market board and one polling wall on the same screen — updated daily, sourced line by line.
Both borders have been taxed since September 8, when Canada’s C$27.6B in counter-tariffs took effect. Washington answered the same day with outright import bans — motorcycles, spirits, wines, whey — starting September 29. Since then the dispute has changed scale: Brussels offered Canada the EU’s first “associate membership”, Trump called it a possible “hostile act”, and his bid to swap Canadian potash for Belarusian supply lasted a day before he backed off at the UN. Seven Canadians in ten still back Carney’s retaliation; in the United States, only a quarter say Trump was right.
What is actually in force
Section 338, Tariff Act of 1930. Three proclamations signed July 20, 2026. No CUSMA exemption.
Roughly US$20B, and about 5% of everything Canada ships to the United States. Estimates ran from C$28B to C$30B depending on the source. Autos, alcohol, dairy, cement, building materials, clothing, hockey sticks. Energy, potash, fish and critical minerals are excluded.
Dollar for dollar. Steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, electronics.
Large motorcycles, spirits, wines, non-alcoholic beer and whey from Canada. Signed September 8; they largely replace the 50% tariffs on those goods.
Over 9% of everything Quebec ships south. Two provincial aid programs opened the following week.
The August 25 package, building on nearly C$25B in prior measures: C$1.5B for regional response, C$500M in BDC liquidity, C$2B for diversification and C$3.5B for workers and employers. Delivery is the next test.
Trump says 50% on Canadian vehicles, auto parts and steel. Announced August 24; not yet in effect.
- 01Greer called the offer preferential: suspend the new 50%, remove the new 10% lumber tariff, and lower autos, steel and aluminum. Ottawa's baseline was the trade relationship before those Trump-era penalties — not a discounted version of them.
- 02Washington wanted the auto-tariff relief to exclude mid-size vehicles and heavy trucks.
- 03Washington sought to limit Canada's freedom to negotiate with other trading partners.
- 04Washington pushed to restrict Canadian-content rules for streaming, film and publishing support, French labelling and other measures protecting culture and sovereignty.
Where we stand
Written from Canada, and labelled as such.
Vote-Scope is written from Canada. One government put a 50% tariff on its neighbour's exports; the other answered seventeen days later. We are not going to write as if striking first and striking back were the same act. The instruments on this page stay neutral by construction: the leverage gap comes out of two published indices and would read the same whoever computed it. The prose does not, and saying so is more honest than hiding it.
Our read
What you need to know.
Potash is not a weapon. Europe might be.
On Monday, Trump said he would buy his potash from Belarus. On Tuesday, at the UN, he changed his mind: “We’ll continue to go with Canada.” Twenty-four hours, and the point was made. Canada is the world’s largest producer, American farmers depend on it, and Minsk concedes it cannot supply. Some levers do not move by executive order. The other news of the week runs the other way. In Strasbourg, Brussels opened the door to an “associate membership” its own treaties do not even provide for, and Carney took it. Trump sees a possible “hostile act”. That is exactly the point: for the first time in this dispute, the cost of escalating against Canada includes Europe. Canadians are following. Public First finds 71% saying Carney was right to retaliate and 57% willing to pay higher prices to stand up to Trump; Abacus measures 81% support for closer integration with the EU, short of membership. In the United States, barely a quarter of adults say Trump was right. The September 29 bans will hurt, above all distillers and dairy processors. But the week showed the limits of coercion: it is pushing Ottawa toward Brussels faster than it is pulling Ottawa back to Washington.
Canada answered. The counterstrike isn’t measured in dollars.
At 12:01 a.m. on September 8, duties of 15%, 25% and 50% hit C$27.6B of U.S. imports across more than 700 products. For the first time in this dispute, both borders are taxed. Scott Bessent warned that you cannot go tit-for-tat “with someone who’s 13 times larger than you are”. On the accounting alone he is right. Twenty-seven billion against an economy that size is a rounding error. But that is not where the counterstrike does its work. Abacus surveyed 2,500 registered voters in the five states that will decide the Senate in November: Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Maine and South Carolina. In all five, supporting these tariffs is a net electoral liability. The 50% tariff on Canadian-made vehicles is opposed by roughly two to one. And majorities everywhere would rather return to the relationship that existed before. Our own leverage gap says the same thing another way: 84.1 for Canada against 27.8 for the political strength of Trump. Canada’s answer does not have to win a trade war against an economy thirteen times its size. It only has to last until November.
The country ratified the refusal in twenty-four hours.
Angus Reid went into the field the night the tariffs landed: 76% of Canadians say Carney was right to walk away, 13% say he was wrong. Five to one. The majority holds in every province — 65% in Saskatchewan, 67% in Alberta, 85% in Quebec — and 53% of 2025 Conservative voters are in it. The rupture did not manufacture that consensus. Léger already had 56% against any further concession, Abacus 69% for holding firm however long it took. Friday night only made it visible. What it did not do is produce a deal: the markets still price a near-term climbdown at well under one chance in ten, and half of Canadians are outright not confident one is reachable while Trump holds office. Domestic strength buys the right to refuse a bad deal. It does not buy a good one.
Permission is not patience.
Abacus CEO David Coletto wrote it at 5 a.m. the morning the tariffs took effect: Canadians gave Carney permission to say no, not unlimited time to be right about it. The same respondents who back the refusal at 76% are 89% worried about prices, and 38% of workers fear for their own job — 13% of them “very”. Support measured before the bill arrives is the cheapest support there is. Which makes the C$7.5 billion in new and enhanced support the real political deadline here, not September 8. It has to be fast and it has to be visible, because the thing that collapses first is not resolve, it is the belief that somebody has a plan.
What the public said last week is not what it says now. Both readings stay up.
On August 17, Léger found 38% of Canadians calling Carney's approach “rather passive” against 30% who called it balanced. On August 23, Angus Reid found 69% saying he showed strength and 19% poor judgement. That is not a contradiction in the data. It is a man who acted between the two field periods. Both cards stay on this page with their dates attached, because a poll is not a standing opinion, it is a timestamped measurement — and deleting the first one would make the second impossible to read.
Greer's “advantage” starts from Washington's own penalty.
Jamieson Greer presents lower tariffs on steel, autos and lumber as preferential treatment. They are preferential only against penalties Washington itself imposed after Trump's return. Reducing a fine you just levied is not a concession. And the asking price was never only tariffs: Carney describes last-minute limits on Canada's freedom to sign deals elsewhere, and on the measures that protect French, Canadian content, film and publishing support, product labelling and regulatory sovereignty. Take the tariff arithmetic out and that is what the refusal is about.
This policy has no public behind it on either side of the border.
78% of Americans say their country should treat Canada as a friend and ally. 59% oppose this round of tariffs. 79% hold a favourable view of Canadians. And the president imposing them sits at 34% approval in Angus Reid's tracking and 37% in Léger's, with strong disapproval alone (46%) outweighing his total support. The tariff is not the expression of an American demand; it is a presidential instrument run against the grain of the country it is supposed to serve. That is the most under-reported number on this page, and it is the one that decides whether Congress moves before the midterms.
Lake America and Lutnick’s Quebec story are the same move: rewrite the record.
The White House can order its own maps to print “Lake America”; it cannot rename Lake Ontario for Canada, erase an Indigenous-rooted hydronym, or make the stunt true. Lutnick’s claim that Carney invented the French-language dispute to damage the PQ fails the same test. Washington had put discoverability and bilingual labelling on the table, then publicly withdrew those positions. Calling the issue fictional after retreating from it is not a competing version of events. It is a lie contradicted by the administration’s own reversal. Carney’s answer worked because it joined geography, language and sovereignty in one sentence; Lutnick then carried that argument directly into Quebec’s election for him. We report the claim, but we do not grant it the false balance of an unresolved factual dispute.
Carney is becoming an external protagonist in the U.S. midterms.
This is still an American election fought by Republicans and Democrats. But the trade war is giving it an external protagonist. Trump is now campaigning against a Canadian refusal; Vance calls Canada a state, then an accident; Ford tells Americans their midterm vote is the answer and proposes targeting deep-red states with Canadian leverage; and Carney answers with Europe, ASEAN and India, promising to double Canada's tariff-free reach in six months. The contrast is becoming legible to U.S. voters: coercion and higher input costs on one side, a neighbouring ally publicly building an exit on the other. Carney is not on the ballot, but Trump is steadily putting him in the campaign.
Davos 2.0: the refusal is addressed to every middle power.
In Davos in January, Carney argued that economic integration had become an instrument of coercion. Canada is now the first major U.S. ally to leave the table rather than accept a relationship with permanent tariffs built into it; Britain, the European Union and others signed narrower deals instead. The speech has become a demonstration, and the demonstration is expensive. It does not prove resistance pays. It does put a price tag on the shelf, where every other middle power can read it next to the price of accommodation.
What we are watching
- 01September 29 — the U.S. bans take effect: large motorcycles, spirits, wines, non-alcoholic beer and whey from Canada.
- 02October — the Canada–EU summit in Montreal. “Associate membership” either moves from speech to text or it doesn’t; and Trump either acts on his “hostile act” threat against Europe or he doesn’t.
- 03Potash: the first Belarusian ship is due in New Orleans in October. A one-off shipment, or a real diversion?
- 04October 5 and 24 — the trade war enters two provincial campaigns: Quebec votes on the 5th, British Columbia on the 24th.
- 05November 3 — the midterms. In Maine, New Hampshire and Texas, Senate candidates of both parties are campaigning against the tariffs.
- 06January 1, 2027 — Trump’s 50% threat on Canadian vehicles, parts and steel. Announced, not yet in effect.
- 07The 57% of Canadians willing to pay higher prices to stand up to Trump (Public First). It is the number that will move first if this drags on.
- 08The energy lever: an export tax on electricity or oil and gas has more than 70% support and has never been used.
What the money says
The board.
Live prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. External markets, carried as context — none of them feed the leverage gap. Thin books are labelled, and one contract below resolves on a narrower question than its title suggests.
A new U.S.–Canada trade deal before 2027
Four months of runway, and the market still prices Canada below India, Mexico and Vietnam.
An increase in the general tariff rate on Canada, in effect by December 31
Read this one carefully: it resolves on the *general* rate, not on item-specific duties. The 50% Section 338 tariffs do not settle it.
Another Canadian election called by December 31
47% of Canadians want a vote on any deal. The market says they will not get one this year.
The U.S. acquires any part of Canada before 2029
The annexation talk is not costless. Traders have put real money behind a non-zero answer for eighteen months.
Alberta votes to secede before the next federal election
The internal seam. Alberta is also where support for retaliation is weakest.
The tariff-rate ladder
Kalshi · general tariff rate on Canada, January 1, 2027
- Tariff rate on Canada ≥ 10% on January 1, 2027
- 80%
- ≥ 20%
- 43%
- ≥ 30%
- 21%
Thin trading: a few hundred open contracts. Read it as a trend rather than a price.
What the publics say
Two countries, one file.
Canada now has two sets of readings: the ones taken before the talks collapsed, and the ones taken after. They do not say the same thing, and both stay up with their field dates attached. In the United States, opinion never followed the president on this file at all.
Canada
71% say Carney was right to retaliate; 57% would pay higher prices to stand up to Trump
Was Carney right to impose reciprocal tariffs on the United States?Fielded a week after the counter-tariffs took effect, online, 2,119 Canadian adults. Almost half say Carney should make no concessions at all, and 38% see the trade relationship as unfairly favourable to the United States, against 18% who say it favours Canada. Liberal voters are the most willing to absorb higher prices, at 74%.
71% back the walkaway; 60% approve Carney’s handling
Was Carney right to suspend trade talks with the United States?A second fully post-rupture reading confirms the mandate, across parties: 87% of Liberal, 82% of Bloc, 78% of NDP and 54% of Conservative voters say Carney was right. Quebec is highest at 79%. Most interviews preceded the August 25 counter-tariff details.
The CAQ rises to 27% in the poll — and from 12 to 30 projected seats
Quebec’s first fully post-rupture electoral readingThe seat model moves the CAQ to 30 projected seats from 12 the day before; the PQ falls to 55 from 71. The timing is consistent with a rally toward the governing party as Christine Fréchette campaigns against Trump. One poll and one model update do not identify a causal effect; the outlier exemption admitted the shock, while the firm-concentration cap remained active.
Early readings move toward the governments carrying the response
The first, still-thin electoral pulse after the ruptureDirectionally consistent, not causal proof. Liaison has Ford approval up from 24% in its July wave and the PCs at 39%; Léger has the CAQ at 23%, versus 20% in its early-August wave. The federal Liaison tracker has the Liberals leading 43–32, but only its final tracking day followed the August 21 collapse. There are still too few fully post-shock electoral polls to estimate a durable bonus.
76% say Canada was right to walk away — five to one
Was Canada right to end the negotiations?The first poll fielded entirely after the rupture. Two-thirds or better in every province — 65% in Saskatchewan, 67% in Alberta, 85% in Quebec — and 53% of 2025 Conservative voters. Past Conservatives split evenly on strength (43%) versus poor judgement (43%); almost no past Liberal (1%) wanted more compromises.
Resolve on top, exposure underneath: 89% brace for higher prices
The same respondents, asked what they are afraid ofOne worker in eight (13%) is “very” concerned about losing their job. Half are outright not confident a deal can be reached while Trump is in office. Industry estimates put a no-deal path at 0.4% of GDP and as many as 90,000 jobs.
55% want Canada to move beyond CUSMA, not rescue it
Is CUSMA still the thing worth saving?Measured ten days before the rupture. The agreement the two governments spent a year fighting over had already lost its constituency: Conservative voters are the only group still majority-attached to it.
56% want a hard line and no further concessions
What approach should Ottawa take in the negotiations?Quebec (61%) and women (60%) are the firmest. Even among Conservative voters, 51% want no further concessions.
Canadians reach for the energy lever first
Would each of these retaliation measures be a good idea? (% good idea)The three most popular weapons are the ones Ottawa has not fired. Support drops among Conservatives, Albertans and under-35s.
Supply management and banking are the walls
Which concessions would be a good idea? (% good idea)Exactly the files Washington pushed hardest on are the ones with the least public runway.
47% would want an election on any new deal
The domestic bill for whatever gets signedMeasured five days before the rupture, and the “passive” reading did not survive it: once Carney walked, 69% called it strength (Angus Reid, above). 67% of Conservative voters still want that election — against 34% of Liberals. The demand for firmness is bipartisan; the demand for a vote is not.
74% say the trade war has already hit their household finances
The tariffs have already reached the kitchen tableAn earlier Abacus wave (July 24) found 69% wanting Ottawa to hold firm in the CUSMA talks even if uncertainty drags on, against 20% wanting quick compromises.
48% of Canadians now hold an unfavourable view of the American people
What the tariffs did to the friendshipA separate ARI wave in July found 65% of Canadians saying Ottawa should treat the U.S. cautiously, as a potential threat, or as an enemy.
United States
Only a quarter of Americans say Trump was right; half say the tariffs aren’t worth higher prices
Was Trump right to impose new tariffs on Canada?Online, 2,064 U.S. adults. The “Trump was right” figure is reported as “just a quarter”. More than a third of 2024 Trump voters say the tariffs are not worth higher prices. In Maine, New Hampshire and Texas, Senate candidates of both parties now campaign against the tariffs.
Trump hits a second-term low: 34% approve, 58% disapprove
The president's standing, two days before the deadlineStrong disapproval alone (46%) outweighs total approval. Approval has slid steadily from 37% in December and January; this is the lowest reading in Angus Reid's second-term tracking. The man imposing the tariffs is negotiating from the weaker domestic position of the two.
57% of Americans say the tariffs hurt the U.S. economy
Americans on Trump's tariffs41% say “very negatively”. Disapproval at 54% is the highest reading in Léger's U.S. series; approval has sat near 37% since 2025.
59% of Americans oppose this round of tariffs on Canada
Americans on CanadaThe tariffs do not have an American mandate behind them. 78% of Americans want Canada treated as an ally; the policy runs against its own public.
80% of Americans still view Canada favourably — a record low
The soft-power floorDown eleven points from the long-run average, and still third among all nations. This is the asset Canada spends at the table.
The two accounts
Same night, two stories.
« A miscalculation. »Mark Carney · Prime Minister of Canada
On the new U.S. tariffs, the morning they took effect. Carney said the U.S. side introduced last-minute changes that were “unfair, uneconomic”.
« New demands and walk backs of other commitments by Canada have upended the careful balance. »Jamieson Greer · U.S. Trade Representative
Washington's account of the same collapse.
« An attitude at the negotiation table that Canada is a subsidiary of the United States is not something we’re going to accept. »Mark Carney · Prime Minister of Canada
August 24, after Trump threatened a second 50% tariff on Canadian autos, parts and steel.
« Canada is a state — sorry. Freudian slip. »JD Vance · Vice President of the United States
At a factory stop in Maine on August 24. Vance then said it was genuinely accidental, before comparing Canadian trade practices to China’s.
« They’re going to speak loud and clear when it comes to the midterms. […] You all become losers because you’re a loser. »Doug Ford · Premier of Ontario
Ford addressing Donald Trump on August 24, during the same broadside in which he called him a dictator, a bully and the king of bankruptcies. Exact excerpts, reproduced as spoken.
« There’s a line, and Donald Trump is trying to cross it. Canada will never be the 51st state. »David Eby · Premier of British Columbia
Eby responding on August 24 after JD Vance called Canada a state and then described it as a slip.
How we got here
From joint review to 50%.
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Potash climbdown at the UN
A day later, on the sidelines of the General Assembly and a meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Trump backs off: “We’ll continue to go with Canada, but Belarus would like to sell it for a much lower price.” Carney answers that Canadian potash is reliable and cost-effective, and offers a shared “fertilizer independence” instead — potash, ammonia and other fertilizers.
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At the UN, Carney speaks for the middle powers — and skips Washington
While Trump defends the war on Iran from the podium, Carney casts himself as the advocate of multilateralism: cooperation “is not an act of idealism. It is a practical necessity.” On his first trip to the United States since talks collapsed, he holds no official meeting with the Trump administration, and co-hosts with France and the United Kingdom an event on the two-state solution.
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Trudeau steps back into the debate
Back in public life with a production company launched at TIFF, Justin Trudeau delivers the Ogden lecture on international affairs at Brown University: “This is not trade tensions… This is more than that.” He calls the dispute “illogical”: taxing Canadian aluminium, which the United States does not produce in sufficient quantity, first drives up the price of American beer.
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Trump turns to Belarusian potash
Trump says he is negotiating to buy cheaper potash from Belarus to reduce American dependence on Canada, the world’s largest producer. Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe condemns “blood potash”, since Belarus takes part in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; Alexander Lukashenko himself concedes his country cannot supply large volumes.
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Carney answers in Strasbourg; Trump warns of a “hostile act”
Before the European Parliament, Carney welcomes the offer and describes an “alliance for the future” — critical minerals, defence, AI, energy, digital trade, research, financial services — along with easier mobility for young people. In Washington, Trump calls the idea “laughable” and says that if he sees it as “a hostile act” he will put “very serious tariffs” on Europe or stop trading with it on many goods.
-
Brussels opens the door to “associate membership”
In her State of the Union address in Strasbourg, Ursula von der Leyen proposes that Canada become the European Union’s first “associate member”. Carney, the first foreign head of government invited to the speech, is in the room. The treaties do not provide for such a status; the idea was first floated by Friedrich Merz for Ukraine. A Canada–EU summit follows in Montreal in October.
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Canada strikes back
At 12:01 a.m., duties of 15%, 25% and 50% take effect on C$27.6B of U.S. imports across more than 700 products — steel, aluminium, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, plastics and electronics. Goods already in transit are exempt. Both borders are now taxed for the first time in the dispute.
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Washington answers with import bans
The same day, Trump signs executive orders banning, from September 29, imports of large motorcycles, spirits, wines, non-alcoholic beer and whey from Canada — bans that largely replace the 50% tariffs. The tariff list also changes on September 15: ATVs and hides are added, rock salt and cement removed. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer calls it a “natural consequence” of Canada’s “discriminatory treatment” of American exports.
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Ottawa answers the accusation from Washington
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick blames Ottawa for tanking the talks; Carney replies that unelected members of the U.S. cabinet are not experts on Canadian politics, and says the American objective is to wipe out Canadian industries or turn them into subsidiaries. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent argues Canada cannot go tit-for-tat “with someone who’s 13 times larger than you are”.
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The tariffs are a liability in the states that decide the Senate
Abacus surveys 2,500 registered voters — 500 each in Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Maine and South Carolina. Voters are more negative on the administration’s handling of trade with Canada than on Trump overall; the 50% tariff on Canadian-made vehicles is opposed by roughly two to one; supporting the tariffs is a net electoral liability in all five states; and majorities everywhere would rather return to the relationship that existed before.
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Carney: Washington has to “start being serious”
With a week to go before the counter-tariffs land, Carney says U.S. negotiators pushed an asymmetrical deal that would have hurt Canadian sectors, the auto industry first among them, and that Washington has to start being serious before talks can resume.
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The untested tariff authority faces its legal test
Trade lawyers say Section 338 has never been used or tested in court and may have been displaced by newer trade laws. The tariffs remain in effect; the legal uncertainty is now a separate pressure point, not a suspension.
-
The rally now has a second reading
Abacus finds 71% backing the walkaway and 60% approving Carney’s handling. A fully post-rupture Quebec poll puts the CAQ at 27%, one point behind the PQ; Vote-Scope moves the CAQ from 12 to 30 projected seats. That is a model signal, not proof that tariffs caused every point.
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Growth enters the war with more momentum
Statistics Canada reports real GDP by industry up 0.3% in June and 0.9% in the second quarter, with 17 of 20 sectors expanding. Auto manufacturing rose 20.9% and auto-parts manufacturing 10.8%. This is a stronger starting point, not a verdict on the trade war: nearly all of the quarter predates the August tariff shock, while the July advance estimate is flat.
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The dispute reaches the map — and Quebec’s ballot
Trump orders U.S. maps to call Lake Ontario “Lake America”; Carney answers with the Indigenous-rooted hydronym. In Quebec, Christine Fréchette launches the CAQ campaign by naming Trump as her real adversary, while Howard Lutnick claims Carney manufactured the French-language dispute to hurt the PQ.
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Ottawa prices the counterstrike
Finance Canada publishes the list: tariffs of 15%, 25% and 50% on C$27.6B of U.S. imports from September 8, plus C$7.5B in new and enhanced support for regions, firms, diversification, workers and employers.
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A second 50% clock starts
Trump threatens 50% tariffs on Canadian vehicles, auto parts and steel from January 1, 2027. Carney says Washington’s auto proposal would gradually dismantle Canadian production. Ontario’s Doug Ford puts electricity, critical minerals, oil and potash on the table — explicitly to target deep-red states and make the U.S. economy feel the pain.
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Canada points the trade map away from Washington
Carney says Canada will seek to double tariff-free access from 1.5 billion consumers over six months through deals from ASEAN to India, and begin talks this fall on a deeper economic and security partnership with the European Union.
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The country ratifies the refusal
Angus Reid fields overnight and finds 76% saying Canada was right to walk, against 13% who say it was wrong — majority backing in every province. The premiers line up behind Carney. The size of Ottawa’s new support package is still to come.
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The 50% takes effect
Tariffs bite at 12:01 a.m. ET. Carney announces dollar-for-dollar retaliation and promises additional support for workers and businesses. Ontario's Doug Ford backs the refusal to sign; Quebec opens aid programs for exposed firms.
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Canada leaves the table
Talks collapse late Friday night in Washington. Carney refuses last-minute U.S. changes on autos, on Canada's freedom to strike other trade deals, and on cultural and linguistic sovereignty.
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A three-day pause, and a “deal”
Hours before the deadline, Trump postpones the tariffs by three days and says the two sides have a deal. Ottawa confirms only a suspension until August 22. Prediction markets that had the tariff near 60¢ fall to the low 40s.
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Section 338 proclamations signed
Trump signs three proclamations under the 1930 Smoot-Hawley Act imposing 50% tariffs on Canadian autos, alcohol, dairy, cement and hockey sticks — with no CUSMA exemption. Effective date: August 19.
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Washington will not extend CUSMA
After virtual meetings with his Canadian and Mexican counterparts, USTR Jamieson Greer announces the U.S. will not extend the agreement. The joint-review clock becomes a cliff.
The two birds
Each side, its own instrument.
The gap is Canada Goose Index minus Trump strength (100 − Lame-Duck Index). It is built only from our two indexes, both published with their method. Everything else on this page is context, deliberately NOT folded into the number.
Mark Carney · Canada Goose Index
88/100 Honking Open indexDonald Trump · Lame-Duck Index
18.6/100 residual strength · LDI 81.4 Open indexBilateral context
Signals around the table.
Real relational data — shown as context, not part of the gap calculation.
Loonie (USD→CAD)
1.4196 Bank of Canada (Valet) · 2026-10-15U.S. favourability of Canada
80% Gallup · 2026-02-1680% of Americans view Canada favourably (Gallup, Feb 2026) — a record low, down from a ~91% historical average, yet still 3rd among all nations. Soft-power leverage at the table.
How the gap works
One number from two instruments.
The gap is Canada Goose Index minus Trump strength (100 − Lame-Duck Index). It is built only from our two indexes, both published with their method. Everything else on this page is context, deliberately NOT folded into the number.
Reporting behind this page
- Radio-Canada — direct sur les négociations
- TIME — U.S.–Canada trade negotiations break down
- NBC News — Carney calls new tariffs a miscalculation
- La Presse — Le Canada quitte la table et riposte
- Associated Press — la rupture et sa portée internationale
- New York Times — le coût économique aux États-Unis
- Premier ministre du Canada — discours de Davos
- Angus Reid Institute — 76 % disent que le Canada a eu raison de quitter la table
- Liaison Strategies — rebond de Ford et PC à 39 %
- Liaison Strategies — PLC 43, PCC 32; choc commercial à peine capté
- Léger — intentions de vote au Québec, terrain du 21 au 24 août
- David Coletto (Abacus Data) — « Canadians gave Carney permission to walk away »
- Angus Reid Institute — Trump à 34 %, creux de second mandat
- Associated Press — nouvelle menace sur l’auto et l’acier; leviers de l’Ontario
- Associated Press — JD Vance qualifie le Canada d’« État », puis parle d’un accident
- Premier ministre du Canada — diversification vers l’UE, l’ANASE et l’Inde
- Doug Ford — les mi-mandats et « you’re a loser » (vidéo relayée par Ed Krassenstein)
- Colin D’Mello / Global News — la charge complète de Doug Ford
- Doug Ford — cibler les États profondément républicains et mobiliser les leviers canadiens
- Christopher Nardi / Josh Wingrove — la sortie de Ford obtient une réponse de Trump
- David Eby — « Canada will never be the 51st state »
- Abacus Data — 71 % appuient la décision de quitter la table
- Ministère des Finances — riposte de 27,6 G$ et soutien nouveau ou bonifié de 7,5 G$
- Associated Press — « Lake America », hydronyme et riposte de Carney
- Associated Press — Fréchette lance sa campagne contre Trump
- Associated Press — l’article 338, jamais utilisé, soulève des questions juridiques
- TVA Nouvelles — Lutnick s’invite dans la campagne québécoise
- Synopsis / La Presse — intentions de vote au Québec, 24–26 août
- Statistique Canada — PIB réel par industrie, juin et deuxième trimestre de 2026
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