United States · Vote-Scope index
U.S. Latino Radar
The races where Latino electoral weight, competitiveness and control of Congress intersect.
The index combines seven signals. A safe seat can rank for its electorate, its candidates or its weight in the fight for Congress.
207 House races and 7 Senate races are ranked. The 2028 presidential race has no projection yet.
Updated · October 15, 2026 · 2020-2024 Census estimates
National index
Latino Vote Index
The two-party Democratic share of the Latino House vote, aggregated from all-Latino polls and published with its own precision.
95% confidence interval: 63% – 66% Two-party margin D+28.8
Only three usable polls, from 3 pollsters; the latest is 13 days old. With older polls weighted down, that amounts to 2940 respondents: read it as a rough estimate.
Pollsters handle undecided voters differently: in May 2026, UnidosUS and Equis both had the Democrat at 54 but the Republican at 27 and 35. Keeping only the two major parties, D/(D+R), makes pollsters comparable.
By type of poll
U.S. pollsters survey either all adults or registered voters, and as the election nears they replace “Democrat or Republican” with the candidates' names. The numbers move with the question: at the same pollster, 66.1% in an adults, generic-ballot poll ending 31 August, then 56.3% in a registered-voter, named-candidate poll ending 8 September. So we only average polls of the same type.
| Type | Population | Ballot | Two-party | Waves | Field | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dedicated Latino polls Headline figure | Registered voters | Generic | 64.4% | 5 | 13 d ago | -0.2 over 345 d |
| General-poll crosstabs | Registered voters | Named | 60.6% | 6 | 3 d ago | +2.1 over 34 d |
| General-poll crosstabs | Adults | Generic | 62.7% | 6 | 45 d ago | +2.1 over 217 d |
The waves behind the index
Each wave is compared with the national generic-ballot average over the same fieldwork dates.
| Pollster | Field | Sample | Published D / R | Two-party | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equis Research | Sep 23, 2026 – Oct 2, 2026 | 1,800 ±2.3 | 57 / 31 | 64.8% | +10.5 |
| Hart Research Associates & Public Opinion Strategies NBC News/Telemundo | Sep 21, 2026 – Sep 28, 2026 | 800 ±3.1 | 59 / 35 | 62.8% | +8.6 |
| Equis Research | May 11, 2026 – May 25, 2026 | 2,000 ±2.0 | Margin only — kept out of the share index | — | — |
| BSP Research & Shaw & Company Research UnidosUS | Apr 27, 2026 – May 14, 2026 | 3,000 ±1.8 | 54 / 27 | 66.7% | +14.5 |
| Equis Research | Mar 10, 2026 – Mar 20, 2026 | 2,000 ±2.0 | 54 / 35 | 60.7% | +8.7 |
| Equis Research | Oct 15, 2025 – Oct 29, 2025 | 2,000 | No ballot published | — | — |
| BSP Research & Shaw & Company Research UnidosUS | Oct 8, 2025 – Oct 22, 2025 | 3,000 | 52 / 28 | 65.0% | +13.6 |
Race
214 eligible races. Rankings recalculate after every new House or Senate model run.
30 / 214
Methodology
Each component is scored from 0 to 100 and multiplied by its published weight. Incomplete races are excluded, never reweighted.
- Latino electorate: 20%
- Competitiveness: 20%
- Flip probability: 15%
- Candidate representation: 15%
- Control importance: 10%
- Recent movement: 10%
- Likely mobilization: 10%