House · #7

AZ-6

Candidate representation · Flip probability

Index59/100

Favourite and chance of winningDem. 80%

Latino citizens of voting age21%

7-day change-4.4

Chance of winning in our projection, not a vote share. Latino share of citizens of voting age (18 and over), from the Census. Not registered voters, not actual voters.

Index breakdown

Latino electorate

20% · official

Competitiveness

20% · model

Flip probability

15% · model

Candidate representation

15% · reviewed

100

Control importance

10% · model

100

Recent movement

10% · model

Likely mobilization

10% · official; state estimate

Democratic chance of winning, day by day

Candidates on the November 3 ballot

Juan Ciscomani Republican Verified Latino identity

Chris Donat Democratic Filed with the FEC, not yet confirmed on the ballot

Joanna Mendoza Democratic

Mo Goldman Democratic Filed with the FEC, not yet confirmed on the ballot

Jereme Lance Peters Other Filed with the FEC, not yet confirmed on the ballot

Trevor Dickerson Other Filed with the FEC, not yet confirmed on the ballot

Sources and freshness

U.S. Census CVAP 2020-2024 ACS · Jul 24, 2026
Vote-Scope model · Oct 15, 2026
U.S. Census CPS Voting Supplement 2024 · Jul 24, 2026
U.S. House History — Hispanic-American members of the 119th Congress · Jul 24, 2026
Associated Press calls reported by Wikipedia — unofficial, pending state certification

Full AZ-6 projection All House and Senate projections Download image