House · #17

FL-14

Flip probability · Control importance

Index43/100

Favourite and chance of winningDem. 79%

Latino citizens of voting age23%

7-day change+1.4

Chance of winning in our projection, not a vote share. Latino share of citizens of voting age (18 and over), from the Census. Not registered voters, not actual voters.

Index breakdown

Latino electorate

20% · official

Competitiveness

20% · model

Flip probability

15% · model

Candidate representation

15% · no verified candidate in registry

Control importance

10% · model

100

Recent movement

10% · model

Likely mobilization

10% · official; state estimate

Democratic chance of winning, day by day

Candidates on the November 3 ballot

Kathy Castor Democratic

Alysha Aly Legge Republican Filed with the FEC, not yet confirmed on the ballot

Daniel Weldon Republican Filed with the FEC, not yet confirmed on the ballot

Gavriel E. Soriano Republican

John Charles Wick Republican Filed with the FEC, not yet confirmed on the ballot

Mike Beltran Republican

Shay Williams Republican Filed with the FEC, not yet confirmed on the ballot

Brian Keith Lambert Other Filed with the FEC, not yet confirmed on the ballot

Lost in the primaries (6)

Bea Valenti · Republican
Ergin Aka Batman Tek · Republican
John Peters · Republican
Kevin Steele · Republican
Michael Marcel · Republican
Robert Anthony Rocky Capt Rochford · Republican

Sources and freshness

U.S. Census CVAP 2020-2024 ACS · Jul 24, 2026
Vote-Scope model · Nov 2, 2026
U.S. Census CPS Voting Supplement 2024 · Jul 24, 2026
Associated Press calls reported by Wikipedia — unofficial, pending state certification
Florida Department of State — unofficial election night results
New Mexico Secretary of State — certified 2026 primary results · Jun 23, 2026

Full FL-14 projection All House and Senate projections Download image