Thursday, October 15, 2026
B.C. votes in 9 days

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House · #5

TX-23

Latino electorate · Competitiveness

Index61/100
Favourite and chance of winningRep. 64%
Latino citizens of voting age58%
7-day change+7.0

Chance of winning in our projection, not a vote share. Latino share of citizens of voting age (18 and over), from the Census. Not registered voters, not actual voters.

Index breakdown

Latino electorate

20% · official
100

Competitiveness

20% · model
71

Flip probability

15% · model
36

Candidate representation

15% · reviewed
70

Control importance

10% · model
43

Recent movement

10% · model
47

Likely mobilization

10% · official; state estimate
15

Democratic chance of winning, day by day

50 % Jul 22, 2026 Oct 15, 2026