Texas’s 23rd District

U.S. House · TX-23

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 64% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.1 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 44%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 51.5%

Brandon Herrera
Democrat 48.5%

Katy Padilla Stout

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat
TX-23	51.5%	48.5%
National averageUnited States	44.2%+7.2	54.5%−6.0

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

1 poll, 2 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source	Image
Public Policy Polling House Majority PAC Scenario 1	10–Mar 11, 2026	521	registered voters	Generic Republican (R) 47 Generic Democrat (D) 45	See the poll
Public Policy Polling House Majority PAC Scenario 2	10–Mar 11, 2026	521	registered voters	Brandon Herrera (R) 42 Katy Padilla Stout (D) 40	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	57.7% (± 0.9)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Tony Gonzales · Republican

Primary results

Held March 3, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Katy Padilla Stout	52.1%	30,828 votes
Republican primary	Brandon Herrera	43.3%	23,932 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Open seat

Katy Padilla Stout
source
Other Open seat

Williams, Veronica

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Republican Open seat

Brandon Herrera
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 24.6 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 7.1 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

TX-11 Republican, safe seat
TX-21 Republican, competitive
TX-20 Democrat, safe seat
TX-19 Republican, safe seat
TX-16 Democrat, safe seat
TX-35 Republican, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 15, 2026