Texas’s 35th District
U.S. House · TX-35
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 55% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.7 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 46%.
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| TX-35 | 50.6% | 49.5% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.2%+6.3 | 54.5%−5.1 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
1 poll
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Johnny C. Garcia | 63.8% | 13,017 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Carlos De La Cruz | 57.6% | 18,927 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 14.8 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 6.7 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 15 74%
- Former district 28 17%
- Former district 23 6%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated