House · #4

TX-34

Latino electorate · Candidate representation

Index63/100

Favourite and chance of winningDem. 74%

Latino citizens of voting age87%

7-day change-3.1

Chance of winning in our projection, not a vote share. Latino share of citizens of voting age (18 and over), from the Census. Not registered voters, not actual voters.

Index breakdown

Latino electorate

20% · official

100

Competitiveness

20% · model

Flip probability

15% · model

Candidate representation

15% · reviewed

100

Control importance

10% · model

100

Recent movement

10% · model

Likely mobilization

10% · official; state estimate

Democratic chance of winning, day by day

Candidates on the November 3 ballot

Vicente Gonzalez Democratic Verified Latino identity

Alfredo Jr. Hinojosa Republican Filed with the FEC, not yet confirmed on the ballot

Charles Mandel Republican Filed with the FEC, not yet confirmed on the ballot

Eric Flores Republican

Mario Alberto Morales Republican Filed with the FEC, not yet confirmed on the ballot

Mauro Everett Mr. Garza Republican Filed with the FEC, not yet confirmed on the ballot

Scott Mandel Republican

Lost in the primaries (6)

Etienne Ph.D. Rosas · Democratic
Gregory Scott Jr. Kunkle · Republican
Jay Nagy · Republican
Keith Allen · Republican
Luis F Buentello · Republican
Mayra Nohemi Flores · Republican

Sources and freshness

U.S. Census CVAP 2020-2024 ACS · Jul 24, 2026
Vote-Scope model · Oct 15, 2026
U.S. Census CPS Voting Supplement 2024 · Jul 24, 2026
U.S. House History — Hispanic-American members of the 119th Congress · Jul 24, 2026
Texas Secretary of State — official election results portal
New Mexico Secretary of State — certified 2026 primary results · Jun 23, 2026

Full TX-34 projection All House and Senate projections Download image