Texas’s 34th District

U.S. House · TX-34

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 74% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.7 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 39%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 52.5%

Vicente Gonzalez, incumbent
Republican 47.5%

Eric Flores

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican
TX-34	52.5%	47.5%
National averageUnited States	54.5%−2.0	44.2%+3.2

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

3 polls, 4 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research And Survey Center	18–Aug 22, 2026	700	likely voters	Vicente Gonzalez (D) 45 Eric Flores (R) 42 Eddie Espinoza (GRE) 3 Chris Royal (Lib.) 2	See the poll
Ragnar Research Partners	14–Jun 16, 2026	400	likely voters	Eric Flores (R) 44 Vicente Gonzalez (D) 41	See the poll
Co/Efficient NRCC Scenario 1	25–Apr 29, 2026	777	likely voters	Eric Flores (R) 41 Vicente Gonzalez (D) 40	See the poll
Co/Efficient NRCC Scenario 2	25–Apr 29, 2026	777	likely voters	Generic Republican (R) 48 Generic Democrat (D) 44	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current member

Vicente Gonzalez · Democrat

Primary results

Held March 3, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Vicente Gonzalez	62.7%	35,342 votes
Republican primary	Eric Flores	56.7%	20,726 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Incumbent

Vicente Gonzalez
source
Republican Challenger

Eric Flores
source
Republican Challenger

Scott Mandel

General-election qualification remains to be verified.

Previous election (2024)

The Democrats won by 6.7 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 7.7 points.

Where these voters came from

This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:

Former district 34 86%
Former district 27 14%

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

TX-15 Democrat, toss-up
TX-28 Democrat, competitive
TX-27 Republican, competitive
TX-35 Republican, toss-up
TX-20 Democrat, safe seat
TX-22 Republican, competitive

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 15, 2026