House · #21

CA-40

Competitiveness · Latino electorate

Index44/100

Favourite and chance of winningRep. 60%

Latino citizens of voting age21%

7-day change+7.2

Chance of winning in our projection, not a vote share. Latino share of citizens of voting age (18 and over), from the Census. Not registered voters, not actual voters.

Index breakdown

Latino electorate

20% · official

Competitiveness

20% · model

Flip probability

15% · model

Candidate representation

15% · no verified candidate in registry

Control importance

10% · model

Recent movement

10% · model

Likely mobilization

10% · official; state estimate

Democratic chance of winning, day by day

Candidates on the November 3 ballot

Christina Gagnier Democratic Filed with the FEC, not yet confirmed on the ballot

Francis Xavier Hoffman Democratic

Joseph Kerr Democratic Filed with the FEC, not yet confirmed on the ballot

Paula Williams Dr. Swift Democratic Filed with the FEC, not yet confirmed on the ballot

Perry Meade Democratic Filed with the FEC, not yet confirmed on the ballot

Tiffanie Dr. Tate Democratic Filed with the FEC, not yet confirmed on the ballot

Ken Calvert Republican

Young Kim Republican

Lost in the primaries (4)

Claude Manuel Keissieh · Democratic
Esther Kim Varet · Democratic
Lisa D Ramirez · Democratic
Nina Linh · Other

Sources and freshness

U.S. Census CVAP 2020-2024 ACS · Jul 24, 2026
Vote-Scope model · Oct 15, 2026
U.S. Census CPS Voting Supplement 2024 · Jul 24, 2026
California Secretary of State — certified 2026 primary results · Jul 10, 2026
New Mexico Secretary of State — certified 2026 primary results · Jun 23, 2026

Full CA-40 projection All House and Senate projections Download image