Thursday, October 15, 2026
B.C. votes in 9 days

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House · #2

TX-15

Latino electorate · Competitiveness

Index74/100
Favourite and chance of winningDem. 51%
Latino citizens of voting age75%
7-day change-4.5

Chance of winning in our projection, not a vote share. Latino share of citizens of voting age (18 and over), from the Census. Not registered voters, not actual voters.

Index breakdown

Latino electorate

20% · official
100

Competitiveness

20% · model
99

Flip probability

15% · model
51

Candidate representation

15% · reviewed
100

Control importance

10% · model
71

Recent movement

10% · model
30

Likely mobilization

10% · official; state estimate
15

Democratic chance of winning, day by day

50 % Mar 28, 2026 Oct 15, 2026