Thursday, October 15, 2026
B.C. votes in 9 days

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House · #16

CO-3

Competitiveness · Flip probability

Index49/100
Favourite and chance of winningDem. 67%
Latino citizens of voting age21%
7-day change-5.8

Chance of winning in our projection, not a vote share. Latino share of citizens of voting age (18 and over), from the Census. Not registered voters, not actual voters.

Index breakdown

Latino electorate

20% · official
42

Competitiveness

20% · model
65

Flip probability

15% · model
68

Candidate representation

15% · no verified candidate in registry
0

Control importance

10% · model
99

Recent movement

10% · model
39

Likely mobilization

10% · official; state estimate
36

Democratic chance of winning, day by day

50 % Mar 24, 2026 Oct 15, 2026