House · #15

FL-22

Competitiveness · Latino electorate

Index49/100

Favourite and chance of winningDem. 51%

Latino citizens of voting age20%

7-day change-4.6

Chance of winning in our projection, not a vote share. Latino share of citizens of voting age (18 and over), from the Census. Not registered voters, not actual voters.

Index breakdown

Latino electorate

20% · official

Competitiveness

20% · model

Flip probability

15% · model

Candidate representation

15% · no verified candidate in registry

Control importance

10% · model

Recent movement

10% · model

Likely mobilization

10% · official; state estimate

Democratic chance of winning, day by day

Candidates on the November 3 ballot

Pia Dandiya Democratic

Anna Medvedeva Republican Filed with the FEC, not yet confirmed on the ballot

Casey Askar Republican

Daniel John Franzese Republican Filed with the FEC, not yet confirmed on the ballot

Herbert Dr. Od Wertheim Republican Filed with the FEC, not yet confirmed on the ballot

Richard Evans Republican

Sara Baxter Republican Filed with the FEC, not yet confirmed on the ballot

Lev Parnas Other Filed with the FEC, not yet confirmed on the ballot

Lost in the primaries (6)

Kaysia Earley · Democratic
Belinda Keiser · Republican
David Burck · Republican
Michael Carbonara · Republican
Michael Thompson · Republican
Terri Hasdorff · Republican

Sources and freshness

U.S. Census CVAP 2020-2024 ACS · Jul 24, 2026
Vote-Scope model · Oct 15, 2026
U.S. Census CPS Voting Supplement 2024 · Jul 24, 2026
Florida Department of State — unofficial election night results
New Mexico Secretary of State — certified 2026 primary results · Jun 23, 2026

Full FL-22 projection All House and Senate projections Download image