House · #17

NY-1

Competitiveness · Control importance

Index47/100

Favourite and chance of winningDem. 55%

Latino citizens of voting age10%

7-day change-8.0

Chance of winning in our projection, not a vote share. Latino share of citizens of voting age (18 and over), from the Census. Not registered voters, not actual voters.

Index breakdown

Latino electorate

20% · official

Competitiveness

20% · model

Flip probability

15% · model

Candidate representation

15% · no verified candidate in registry

Control importance

10% · model

Recent movement