House · #27

CA-48

Flip probability · Latino electorate

Index40/100

Favourite and chance of winningDem. 92%

Latino citizens of voting age25%

7-day change-0.8

Chance of winning in our projection, not a vote share. Latino share of citizens of voting age (18 and over), from the Census. Not registered voters, not actual voters.

Index breakdown

Latino electorate

20% · official

Competitiveness

20% · model

Flip probability

15% · model

Candidate representation

15% · no verified candidate in registry

Control importance

10% · model

Recent movement

10% · model

Likely mobilization

10% · official; state estimate

Democratic chance of winning, day by day

Candidates on the November 3 ballot

Anuj Dixit Democratic Filed with the FEC, not yet confirmed on the ballot

Curtis Morrison Democratic Filed with the FEC, not yet confirmed on the ballot

Eric Shaw Democratic

Marc Iannarino Democratic Filed with the FEC, not yet confirmed on the ballot

Marni Von Wilpert Democratic

Mike Schaefer Democratic

Stephen Clemons Democratic

Suzanne Marie Dr. Till Democratic Filed with the FEC, not yet confirmed on the ballot

Darrell Issa Republican Filed with the FEC, not yet confirmed on the ballot

Jim Desmond Republican

Kevin Patrick O'Neil Republican

Luis F. Reyna Other

Lost in the primaries (5)

Abel Chavez · Democratic
Ammar Campa-Najjar · Democratic
Brandon Riker · Democratic
Corinna Contreras · Democratic
Ferguson Porter · Democratic

Sources and freshness

U.S. Census CVAP 2020-2024 ACS · Jul 24, 2026
Vote-Scope model · Oct 15, 2026
U.S. Census CPS Voting Supplement 2024 · Jul 24, 2026
California Secretary of State — certified 2026 primary results · Jul 10, 2026
New Mexico Secretary of State — certified 2026 primary results · Jun 23, 2026

Full CA-48 projection All House and Senate projections Download image