Senate · #11

Texas

Competitiveness · Latino electorate

Index52/100

Favourite and chance of winningDem. 58%

Latino citizens of voting age32%

7-day change-3.9

Chance of winning in our projection, not a vote share. Latino share of citizens of voting age (18 and over), from the Census. Not registered voters, not actual voters.

Index breakdown

Latino electorate

20% · official

Competitiveness

20% · model

Flip probability

15% · model

Candidate representation

15% · no verified candidate in registry

Control importance

10% · model

100

Recent movement

10% · model

Likely mobilization

10% · official; state estimate

Democratic chance of winning, day by day

Candidates on the November 3 ballot

Ahmad R. Hassan Democratic

Colin Allred Democratic Filed with the FEC, not yet confirmed on the ballot

James Talarico Democratic

Michael Swanson Democratic Filed with the FEC, not yet confirmed on the ballot

Terry Virts Democratic Filed with the FEC, not yet confirmed on the ballot

Barrett Anthony Mcnabb Republican Filed with the FEC, not yet confirmed on the ballot

John O. Adefope Republican

Warren Kenneth Jr. Paxton Republican Filed with the FEC, not yet confirmed on the ballot

Daniel M Sims Other Filed with the FEC, not yet confirmed on the ballot

Jade Simmons Other Filed with the FEC, not yet confirmed on the ballot

Theodore E. Jr. Brown Other Filed with the FEC, not yet confirmed on the ballot

Lost in the primaries (7)

Jasmine Crockett · Democratic
Anna Bender · Republican
Gulrez Khan · Republican
John Sen Cornyn · Republican
Sara Larue Canady · Republican
Virgil Bierschwale · Republican
Wesley Hunt · Republican

Sources and freshness

U.S. Census CVAP 2020-2024 ACS · Jul 24, 2026
Vote-Scope model · Oct 15, 2026
U.S. Census CPS Voting Supplement 2024 · Jul 24, 2026
New Mexico Secretary of State — certified 2026 primary results · Jun 23, 2026
Texas Secretary of State — official election results portal

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