House · #29

AZ-1

Flip probability · Control importance

Index40/100

Favourite and chance of winningDem. 81%

Latino citizens of voting age13%

7-day change-3.2

Chance of winning in our projection, not a vote share. Latino share of citizens of voting age (18 and over), from the Census. Not registered voters, not actual voters.

Index breakdown

Latino electorate

20% · official

Competitiveness

20% · model

Flip probability

15% · model

Candidate representation

15% · no verified candidate in registry

Control importance

10% · model

100

Recent movement

10% · model

Likely mobilization

10% · official; state estimate

Democratic chance of winning, day by day

Candidates on the November 3 ballot

Amish Dr. Shah Democratic

Brian A Del Vecchio Democratic Filed with the FEC, not yet confirmed on the ballot

Mark Robert Gordon Democratic Filed with the FEC, not yet confirmed on the ballot

Brandon Sowers Republican Filed with the FEC, not yet confirmed on the ballot

David S. Schweikert Republican Filed with the FEC, not yet confirmed on the ballot

Gina Swoboda Republican Filed with the FEC, not yet confirmed on the ballot

Jay Feely Republican

Paul C Reevs Republican Filed with the FEC, not yet confirmed on the ballot

Thomas James Feely Republican Filed with the FEC, not yet confirmed on the ballot

Monica Maria Alponte Other Filed with the FEC, not yet confirmed on the ballot

Lost in the primaries (5)

Jonathan Treble · Democratic
Marlene Galan-Woods · Democratic
Rick Mccartney · Democratic
John Trobough · Republican
Joseph Chaplik · Republican

Sources and freshness

U.S. Census CVAP 2020-2024 ACS · Jul 24, 2026
Vote-Scope model · Oct 15, 2026
U.S. Census CPS Voting Supplement 2024 · Jul 24, 2026
Associated Press calls reported by Wikipedia — unofficial, pending state certification
New Mexico Secretary of State — certified 2026 primary results · Jun 23, 2026

Full AZ-1 projection All House and Senate projections Download image