House · #22

NY-17

Competitiveness · Flip probability

Index43/100

Favourite and chance of winningDem. 71%

Latino citizens of voting age15%

7-day change-3.7

Chance of winning in our projection, not a vote share. Latino share of citizens of voting age (18 and over), from the Census. Not registered voters, not actual voters.

Index breakdown

Latino electorate

20% · official

Competitiveness

20% · model

Flip probability

15% · model

Candidate representation

15% · no verified candidate in registry

Control importance

10% · model

100

Recent movement

10% · model

Likely mobilization

10% · official; state estimate

Democratic chance of winning, day by day

Candidates on the November 3 ballot

Cait Conley Democratic

Jessica Reinmann Democratic Filed with the FEC, not yet confirmed on the ballot

John Sullivan Democratic Filed with the FEC, not yet confirmed on the ballot

Mike Sacks Democratic Filed with the FEC, not yet confirmed on the ballot

Peter Chatzky Democratic Filed with the FEC, not yet confirmed on the ballot

Michael Vincent Lawler Republican Filed with the FEC, not yet confirmed on the ballot

Lost in the primaries (3)

Beth Davidson · Democratic
Effie Phillips-Staley · Democratic
John Cappello · Democratic

Sources and freshness

U.S. Census CVAP 2020-2024 ACS · Jul 24, 2026
Vote-Scope model · Oct 15, 2026
U.S. Census CPS Voting Supplement 2024 · Jul 24, 2026
New York State Board of Elections — unofficial election night results

Full NY-17 projection All House and Senate projections Download image