Utah’s 1st District
U.S. House · UT-1
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 38.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| UT-1 | 69.4% | 30.6% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.5%+14.9 | 44.2%−13.6 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
1 poll
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Ben McAdams | 51.9% | 29,737 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Riley Owen | 0.0% |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 28.7 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 38.8 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 2 42%
- Former district 3 23%
- Former district 1 20%
- Former district 4 15%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated