Utah’s 4th District
U.S. House · UT-4
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 19.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 4%.
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| UT-4 | 59.8% | 40.2% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.2%+15.6 | 54.5%−14.3 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
1 poll
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Current member
Owens, Burgess · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Jonny Larsen | 0.0% | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Mike Kennedy | 0.0% |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 25.3 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 19.7 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 2 84%
- Former district 4 16%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated