Virginia’s 2nd District
U.S. House · VA-2
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a 72% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.7 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 45%.
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VA-2 | 52.0% | 47.9% | 0.1% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.5%−2.5 | 44.2%+3.6 | 1.2%−1.1 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
2 polls
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 6.2% (± 0.2) |
|---|
Current member
Jen Kiggans · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Elaine G. Luria | 80.3% | 33,658 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Jen Kiggans | 0.0% |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 3.8 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 6.7 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated