Virginia’s 8th District

U.S. House · VA-8

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 57.9 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Democrat	Republican	Other
VA-8	78.3%	20.3%	1.4%
National averageUnited States	54.5%+23.8	44.2%−23.9	1.2%+0.2

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	13.3% (± 0.5)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Jr. Donald S. Beyer · Democrat

Held August 4, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Donald S. Beyer, Jr.	67.1%	41,220 votes
Republican primary	Tony Sabio	0.0%

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Incumbent

Donald S. Beyer, Jr.
source
Other Challenger

Sharman, Tim

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Republican Challenger

Tony Sabio
source

The Democrats won by 46.9 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 57.9 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.