Virginia’s 10th District

U.S. House · VA-10

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 16.4 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 5%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Democrat	Republican
VA-10	58.2%	41.8%
National averageUnited States	54.5%+3.7	44.2%−2.4

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	12.3% (± 0.4)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Suhas Subramanyam · Democrat

Held August 4, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Suhas Subramanyam	0.0%
Republican primary	Dave T. Beckwith	72.6%	13,388 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

The Democrats won by 4.6 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 16.4 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.