Thursday, October 15, 2026
B.C. votes in 9 days

FR ES
My races Subscribe

Vacant U.S. House seat · No special election called

TX‑23: a vacant seat

Texas never called a special election and, weeks before the general election, is unlikely to: the seat should stay vacant until the November 3 winner is sworn in in January. The forecast covers which party will hold it.

Updated October 15, 2026 50,000 simulations Provisional party-control model

Projected winner

89.7%Republican nominee win probability

Projected margin

19.0 pointsRepublican nominee

Election date

TBDwrit pending

Field

Names pendingparty-level forecast

Updated October 15, 2026 · 50,000 simulations

Party-control projection

Candidate ranking

Provisional forecast before the date and candidates are confirmed.

Republican nominee

Republican

Projected vote
59.5%
Win
89.7%
Median
59.5%

Democratic nominee

Democrat

Projected vote
40.5%
Win
10.3%
Median
40.5%

23rd Congressional District

District context

The seat became vacant after Rep. Tony Gonzales resigned. The special-election date has not yet been set.

R 62.3%D 37.7%

The projection is party-level and remains provisional until the election calendar and candidate field are official.

provisional_party_control_v1

Model note

A provisional party-control projection for a vacant seat before the writ, date and candidate field are known. It anchors to the 119th Congress district result and widens uncertainty for special-election turnout and candidate effects. It assumes a special election is eventually called; the note above explains what happens if none is.

JSON

MODEL INPUTS

Main assumptions

119th Congress district

The anchor uses the district that elected the departing member, not a later general-election redistricting plan.

Candidate field pending

Candidate-specific effects are not applied before official qualification.

Special-election uncertainty

The distribution is deliberately wider than a normal general-election projection because date, turnout and nominees remain unknown.

A writ may never come

This projection assumes a special election is eventually called. No writ had been issued for either seat five months after the vacancy, and leaving a seat vacant until the regular general is a live outcome — not an oversight to be projected away.