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Vacant U.S. House seat · No special election called

FL‑20: a vacant seat

Florida never called a special election and, weeks before the general election, is unlikely to: the seat should stay vacant until the November 3 winner is sworn in in January. The forecast covers which party will hold it.

Updated October 15, 2026 50,000 simulations Provisional party-control model

Projected winner

99.8%Democratic nominee win probability

Projected margin

44.0 pointsDemocratic nominee

Election date

TBDwrit pending

Field

Names pendingparty-level forecast

Updated October 15, 2026 · 50,000 simulations

Party-control projection

Candidate ranking

Provisional forecast before the date and candidates are confirmed.

Democratic nominee

Democrat

Projected vote
72.0%
Win
99.8%
Median
72.0%

Republican nominee

Republican

Projected vote
28.0%
Win
0.3%
Median
28.0%

20th Congressional District

District context

The seat became vacant after Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick resigned. The special-election date has not yet been set.

R 18.2%D 81.8%

The projection is party-level and remains provisional until the election calendar and candidate field are official.

provisional_party_control_v1

Model note

A provisional party-control projection for a vacant seat before the writ, date and candidate field are known. It anchors to the 119th Congress district result and widens uncertainty for special-election turnout and candidate effects. It assumes a special election is eventually called; the note above explains what happens if none is.

JSON

MODEL INPUTS

Main assumptions

119th Congress district

The anchor uses the district that elected the departing member, not a later general-election redistricting plan.

Candidate field pending

Candidate-specific effects are not applied before official qualification.

Special-election uncertainty

The distribution is deliberately wider than a normal general-election projection because date, turnout and nominees remain unknown.

A writ may never come

This projection assumes a special election is eventually called. No writ had been issued for either seat five months after the vacancy, and leaving a seat vacant until the regular general is a live outcome — not an oversight to be projected away.