California’s 22nd District
U.S. House · CA-22
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a 76% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.0 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 37%.
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| CA-22 | 52.8% | 47.2% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.5%−1.7 | 44.2%+2.9 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
2 polls, 3 scenarios
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Current member
David G. Valadao · Republican
Primary results
| Top-two primary | David G. Valadao · Advanced to the general election | 40.7% | 32,491 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top-two primary | Randy Villegas · Advanced to the general election | 32.4% | 25,808 votes |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 5.0 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 8.0 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 22 69%
- Former district 13 29%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated