California’s 21st District
U.S. House · CA-21
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a 98% chance of winning, with an average lead of 18.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 4%.
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| CA-21 | 59.3% | 40.7% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.5%+4.8 | 44.2%−3.5 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 56.8% (± 0.9) |
|---|
Current member
Jim Costa · Democrat
Primary results
| Top-two primary | Jim Costa · Advanced to the general election | 42.2% | 43,461 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top-two primary | Kyle Kirkland · Advanced to the general election | 26.3% | 27,076 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 7.3 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 18.7 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated