California’s 24th District

U.S. House · CA-24

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 35.8 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Democrat	Republican
CA-24	67.9%	32.1%
National averageUnited States	54.5%+13.4	44.2%−12.1

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	28.6% (± 0.5)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Salud Carbajal · Democrat

Held June 2, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Top-two primary	Salud Carbajal · Advanced to the general election	54.4%	113,716 votes
Top-two primary	Bob Smith · Advanced to the general election	35.9%	75,085 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

The Democrats won by 25.4 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 35.8 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.