California’s 5th District
U.S. House · CA-5
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 97% chance of winning, with an average lead of 15.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 9%.
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| CA-5 | 57.7% | 42.3% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.2%+13.5 | 54.5%−12.2 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Tom McClintock · Republican
Primary results
| Top-two primary | Tom McClintock · Advanced to the general election | 61.3% | 129,653 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top-two primary | Michael Masuda · Advanced to the general election | 24.3% | 51,418 votes |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 16.4 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 15.7 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 3 58%
- Former district 5 39%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated