California’s 9th District
U.S. House · CA-9
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 27.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| CA-9 | 63.6% | 36.4% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.5%+9.1 | 44.2%−7.8 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Josh Harder · Democrat
Primary results
| Top-two primary | Josh Harder · Advanced to the general election | 60.8% | 79,946 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top-two primary | John McBride · Advanced to the general election | 23.3% | 30,625 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 9.5 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 27.2 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 9 81%
- Former district 10 12%
- Former district 8 6%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated