California’s 10th District
U.S. House · CA-10
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 42.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| CA-10 | 71.5% | 28.5% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.5%+17.0 | 44.2%−15.7 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Mark DeSaulnier · Democrat
Primary results
| Top-two primary | Mark DeSaulnier · Advanced to the general election | 59.7% | 132,246 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top-two primary | Jeff Frese · Advanced to the general election | 12.9% | 28,671 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 32.9 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 42.9 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 10 75%
- Former district 8 10%
- Former district 14 9%
- Former district 9 6%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated